Daily Update - 02/15/2019
With oversold hourly and four hourly chart, S&P didn't want to wait another business day when hourly cycles bottom and started to propel higher almost straight up closing at 2777 with a gain of 36 points (yesterday's close was 2741) and just 1 point below high of the day at 2778. The low probability scenario assumed previously became the outcome and looks like S&P will try to march towards our price target of 2809 next week. Overhead resistance is at 2794 pivot. All three major indices DOW, S&P, Nasdaq are above their 50W, 200D MA on a closing basis.
US Dollar closed slightly lower at 96.75 but with a bearish candle - made a high at 97.23 but closed below yesterday's close. Gold gained 8.2 closing at 1322 and WTIC gained 1.57 (2.89%) closing at 55.98.
On economic front, empire state manufacturing survey came at a strong 8.8 (consensus was 7.6). However, industrial production came lower at -0.1% (consensus was 0.1%) and capacity utilization was also lower at 78.2%. Import/Export prices came lower at -0.5/-0.6 M/M% and -1.7/-0.2% Y/Y. With the end of government shutdown, consumer sentiment came strong at 95.5. Our cycles on both industrial production and capacity utilization were anticipating deterioration.