Weekly Outlook - (02/24/2019 - 03/01/2019)
The reason we continue to be bullish in the medium term from the lows of 12/24/2018 is captured in our below proprietary weekly technical chart for S&P cash index. The cycle that brought this up swing still hasn't run its course and has some more energy left for the uptrend to continue for some more time. Until it gives a sell signal, there is no reason to be bearish. All technical indicators continue to show improvement and this week we think S&P should reach and possibly exceed our price target of 2809.
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| S&P Weekly 02/22/2019 |
For the upcoming week, the short duration S&P cycles are indicating a possible early weakness followed by an upward impulse move. See below on our hourly cycle chart. The timing info is not added below and is only available for paid subscribers.
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| S&P Hourly Cycles - 02/22/2019 |
US Dollar is sitting at an import support level. While the longer term cycle supporting this counter trend rally is still going to be up for some more time, the lack of upward movement during short duration cycles is bearish. To add to this, the commitment of traders currency report for noncommercial large speculators continue to show reduced long contracts. However, ironically the same appears for EURO contracts as well with a net short contracts. See our COT charts (updated last friday using CFTC report as of 02/05/2019) at this
link. This possibly explains the side ways movement in both US Dollar Index and EUR/USD for sometime now. We continue to wait and watch both of them from sidelines. A daily close in US Dollar Index below 96.26 would be bearish in the short term.
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| US Dollar Noncommercial Commitment of Traders - 02/05/2019 |
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| EURO Noncommercial Commitment of Traders - 02/05/2019 |
Both Gold and Silver should gain this week. Their short term cycle has turned up.
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| Silver Hourly Cycles - 02/22/2019 |
As anticipated last week, BTC/USD continued to gain and reached a short term high of 4282. The below hourly cycle chart for BTC/USD was prepared using data till Friday 02/22/2019 indicating a short term top in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies is in the works and signaling a short term pullback till early part of the week. As of this moment in time 02/24/2019 3:00 PM EST, BTC/USD has corrected by ~10% (from a high of 4282 to a low of 3812). Knowledge of cycles is important to keep us preinformed on what will happen and plan accordingly - this applies for all time frames (monthly to daily as well as hourly).
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| BTC/USD - 02/22/2019 4:00 PM EST |
