Daily Update

The below chart is a zoomed version of the same chart with data till end-of-day last friday (03/15/2019) shared in the weekly outlook report. As indicated in the zoomed chart, our short term cycle model was expecting a cycle high at 2019-03-19 09: AM PST (12 noon EST). Today, S&P futures did precisely that peaking around the expected time frame (at price 2858) and reversed finally closing lower at 2838.

Zoomed S&P Hourly Cycle Chart - 03/15/2019

Short term S&P cycles continue to be down from mid-day today. In the recent past, the way S&P has traded in short term down cycle is two ways: a) give an initial decline of 20-35 points then retest or exceed the recent high and then show weakness again going into cycle bottom; b) decline directly into the cycle bottom time. Tomorrow being FOMC announcement day which is typically volatile, it is equally likely either of the two scenarios play out.

Downtrending daily cycle on US Dollar Index continue to bring weakness/consolidation. It closed slightly lower today at 95.85.