Daily Update - 03/04/2019
Cycles continue to do their job and their apriori knowledge helps us predict what is the highest probability outcome without being continuously glued to news, media, and market movements.
As mentioned in weekend post, down cycles in S&P led to a 51 point decline (2819 to 2768) finally closing at 2791 just above the support level. The extent of decline indicates the down trending medium term weekly cycles from middle of February has taken over. The way S&P trades in the next short term up cycle will help confirm this. But for now, the short term cycle in S&P is still down tomorrow. S&P is oversold on hourly charts, however the daily chart is deteriorating.
Up cycles on US Dollar Index continued to push it higher reaching as high as 96.75 finally closing at 96.53. This trend should continue further.
On economic front, Motor Vehicle Sales came lower in February at 16.5M annualized rate compared to 16.7M in January. Construction spending fell -0.6% in December primarily due to decline in private residential construction.