Sunday, March 17, 2019

Weekly Outlook - (03/18/2019 - 03/23/2019)

Eliott Wave (EW) as a stand alone tool cannot always accurately forecast market movement primarily because of the lack of accurate insight in labelling wave count (start and end) correctly and by the time one gets the labelling right most of the market movement is over - one is only absolutely correct in hindsight. Cycles are what drive markets and their apriori knowledge assists in accurately identifying in "advance" the exact time frame for beginning and end of a wave of any degree in EW terms across all time frames - something that stand alone EW-ers cannot accomplish.

Last week made a bullish engulfing candle in S&P weekly chart. We continue to remain in buy mode until the current uptrending weekly cycles peak.  Our available weekly cycle model has an anticipated date when this is going to happen. For the next week, the short duration cycles are projecting continued gains in first part of the week followed by weakness/consolidation in later part.


S&P Hourly Cycles - 03/15/2019

Friday's COT report for data till 03/12/2019 show higher net long contracts held for US Dollar Index futures by non-commercial traders. However, interestingly the net short EURO futures contracts reduced a bit and might be potentially reversing. While the weekly "counter trend" cycle for US Dollar Index is still up, the daily cycle continue to be down expecting weakness/consolidation.

This year, we have been closely tracking a number of soft commodities (cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar) due to renewed requests from clients. If you are interested in yearly/long dated or short duration cycle forecast for any of them then please feel free to reach out to us using the contact form in the left panel (in web version of the site if you using a mobile device). An example below on how our daily cycle on cocoa and cotton has been performing - the red curve is the cycle and the blue curve is the actual price.

Cocoa futures dominant daily cycle - 03/15/2019

Cotton futures dominant daily cycle - 03/15/2019