- Long term bullish on China (SSEC), India (BSE), South Korea (KOSPI) and continue to hold this outlook. These markets have been doing good so far.
- Still bearish on European markets specifically Germany and continue to hold this view. That's one of the reason why German DAX is under-performing compared to the rest of the world and acting as a head wind for EURO.
- Medium term bullish on US markets but not completely out of the woods.
US markets have come up a long way since Dec' 2018 especially with lack of volatility during Jan-Feb. The question is, when is the medium term top going to be in place if not already?
In last 2-3 weeks, the weekly technical charts have deteriorated a bit. There is divergence in RSI, a sell signal on cycle indicators, and stochastic about to give a sell signal. However, our medium term weekly cycles are still showing some more time window for gains as long as we hold the weekly trend level.
Daily cycles turned down last week as captured during the daily tuesday post dated 2019-03-19 and will be down for some more time. Daily technical charts have a MACD divergence and sell signal on RSI and slow stochastic. Based on how S&P performs until the daily cycle bottoms and in the next daily up cycle move will provide clarity on the state of medium term trend.
For the next week, hourly cycles show a very early weakness followed by gains till mid-week and then weakness again in later part of the week.
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| S&P Daily and Hourly Cycles - 03/22/2019 |
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| S&P Weekly Chart - 03/22/2019 |
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| S&P Daily Chart - 03/22/2019 |
For US Dollar Index, buy signal from last week continues as long as we hold 95.79. It should end higher by end of the week.