S&P held pretty well last week closing higher for the week by 1.2% - futures did a bullish close at 2839.75 clearing the overhead resistance and price level is back in the up trending daily channel. That sets the stage for next week to target 2866 again. VIX on the other hand dropped significantly by -17% and the new positioning (as of 03/26/2019) by large traders in VIX futures contracts (from CFTC's COT report) indicates this trend in VIX is likely to continue further.
Medium term weekly cycles continue to uptrend and so far they are providing a floor to price levels preventing any break of both the daily and weekly trend level. Medium and short term daily cycle is about to bottom this week. View from short-term daily and hourly cycles for next week indicate we may get an early weakness from over-bought levels that should reverse and take price level higher for most part of the week and then a potential weakness towards the end of the week.
US Dollar continues to grind higher and is expected to provide further gains this week. View from short-term cycles is we may start the week with a weakness and then head higher again. Positioning as per CFTC's COT report on 03/26/2019 however shows quite a bit of reduction in net long futures contracts held by large traders.
ECRI's US Weekly Leading Index had a decent gain between Mar 15 to Mar 22 with level increasing from 145.8 to 146.8. This also aligns with the 0.2% increase in Monthly Leading Index from Conference Board. However, an important aspect to note is most of the gains have been from improvement in financial condition and asset prices that is offsetting the weakness in manufacturing activity and labor market components.