Sunday, April 7, 2019

Weekly Outlook - (04/07/2019 - 04/12/2019)

S&P had another positive week gaining 58 points or about 2% with up trending medium term weekly and daily cycles. So far from the last swing low, S&P is already up by 108 points. The next level to target is 2929. Continued positive outlook aligns with COT report as of 04/02/2019 showing renewed increase in net short VIX futures. For this week, outlook from short term cycles is a bit of consolidation in first part of the week followed by continued uptrend.

Up trending daily cycle continue to bring small incremental gains for US Dollar Index futures with heavy over head resistance at 97.0. While the weekly cycle is still up trending, the daily cycle peaks this week. COT report as of 04/02/2019 showed renewed increase in net long DXY (and yet another increase in net short EURO) futures contracts held by large non-commercial traders. However, short term outlook for this week is negative - possibly starting with some more gains and then down side pressure in later part of the week after the daily cycle peaks. Should US Dollar avoid this downside pressure in later part of the week, it would be a bullish signal.