S&P closed marginally lower by -2 points in a holiday shortened week and VIX closed almost neutral. So far the resistance level 2929 has managed to turn down prices preventing S&P to test its all time high of 2941. The question is how long the resistance will hold. A simple answer would be in the very long run this resistance will not hold and S&P would surpass it eventually. But in the medium term as every week pass by time is running out before medium term cycles that brought this 572 points rally from the lows of 12/24/2018 start to turn down after the week of <W1> - trading below the daily trend level of <DT1> will confirm it. The COT report as of 04/16/2019 shows another marginal increase in net short VIX futures held by large non-commercial traders indicating a bullish medium term view held by them. However, outlook for this week from very short term cycles is negative. We may uptrend early in the week till <day D1, hour H1> as long as price holds above hourly trend level <HT1>. After this, S&P should reverse and show weakness.
 |
| S&P Futures Short Term Cycles - 04/21/2019 |
 |
| S&P Futures Daily - 04/18/2019 |
For US Dollar, in last weekly report we noted a sell signal on EURUSD and a buy signal on DXY futures from cycle indicator. This materialized and DXY futures closed higher for the week. There is significant overhead resistance to overcome. COT report as of 04/16/2019 showed as slight decrease in net long DXY and net short EURO futures contracts held by large non-commercial traders. However, with the buy signal still in place it should be another positive week for US Dollar.
 |
| DXY Futures Daily - 04/18/2019 |
