Weekly Outlook - (04/28/2019 - 05/03/2019)

Medium term up trending weekly and daily cycles continue to propel S&P higher - which finally cleared the 2929 resistance to test the all time high of 2941. Last week S&P gained almost +35 points (1.2%) and VIX gained +0.64 (5.29%). Over head resistance is at 2941 followed by 3027. The question is what next? Our bias should be to continue hold long positions until the medium term cycle peak date of <W1> as long as there is no close below daily trend level of <DT1>.  Positive outlook is supported by another marginal increase in net short VIX futures held by large traders as of 2019-04-23 in CFTC’s COT report – however positioning from both commercials and non-commercials is at the very extreme end and open interest weakened a bit signaling a potential change in trend to possibly start in the interim should this continue further next week and VIX starts to trade above its daily and weekly trend resistance of <VDT1> and <WDT1> respectively. Outlook from short term hourly cycles is a potential weakness very early in the week followed by uptrend and then weakness towards the very end of the week.

US Dollar had a positive last week with buy signal in place testing the resistance level around 98.128 but closed lower at 97.78. Similarly, EURUSD tested the support level around 1.1114 and reversed higher. Commitment of traders (COT) report as of 04/23/2019 showed another marginal increase in net long DXY and net short EURO futures contracts held by large non-commercial traders along with increase in net open interest in both of these contacts. Right now, US Dollar is on daily sell signal and EURUSD is on daily buy signal. This signal will be invalidated should US Dollar index futures hold above hourly trend level <DXY_H1> and continue to trade higher while EURUSD hold below hourly trend level <EUR_HT1> and continue to trade lower.