Daily Update

PPI-FD (Producer Price Index Final Demand) came in at 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y - less food and energy was 0.1% m/m and 2.4% y/y. Jobless Claims came in at 228K. Wholesale trade inventories saw a sharp draw down of -0.1% in March - something positive. Fed balance sheet came at $3.892T - lower by $568.2B from the peak in Oct' 2017. Tomorrow, we get CPI at 8:30 am.

During April, while markets were rising, ECRI's Weekly Leading Index was dropping.

Date            Level           Growth

Apr 26 '19      146.4           1.1

Apr 19 '19      146.9           1.3

Apr 12 '19      148.5           1.1

Apr 05 '19      148.0           0.1



S&P daily and hourly trend is at <SP_DT1> and <SP_HT1> respectively. Today, both S&P and VIX closed in red. Such setups usually cause S&P to uptrend the next day though not 100% always. There is some more uptrend time left in the hourly cycle - possibly there is some bounce tomorrow as long as price can hold above <SP_HT1>.

EURUSD daily and hourly trend level is at <EURO_DT1> and <EURO_HT1> respectively. Still on daily buy signal and trading above daily trend level. Need to see some quick upward momentum to avoid a daily sell signal from cycle indicator.


DXY futures daily and hourly trend level is at <DXY_DT1> and <DXY_HT1>. Still on daily sell signal. A failed upward thrust in EURUSD soon enough and DXY futures trading back above daily/hourly trend level might give a buy signal.