• Long Term: Long-term monthly and weekly cycles are down till <SP_W>. Combining all cycles, long-term downside pressure should end by <SP_W1>.
• Medium Term: From the lows of 2018-12-24, the anticipated peak from medium term weekly cycles timely happened around first week of May and now our bias at least until <SP_W1> is negative as long as S&P doesn’t close above daily trend <SP_DT1> and VIX doesn’t close below daily trend <VIX_DT1> in a decisive manner. Negative outlook is supported by substantial decrease in net short VIX futures held by large traders from the recent extreme. However, recent data as of 2019-05-21 in CFTC’s COT report showed a marginal increase in VIX short position though not yet confirmed from declining open interest.
From now till the bottom from long-term cycles (Week of <SP_W1> to <SP_W>), the period consists of three parts: 1) DOWN; 2) UP; 3) DOWN. The anticipated decline in the first DOWN part had timely started and expected till <SP_W2>. The second UP part is peaking in the month of <SP_M1>.
• Short Term: During the decline so far, short-term cycles from all indexes were in sync. However, now there are multiple conflicting short-term signals. While <INDEX1> and <INDEX2> short term daily cycle indicates a short-term bottom was in place at the recent lows, similar daily cycle from <INDEX3> and <INDEX4> indicate lower lows are expected by <SP_W2>. Since longer and medium-term cycles are down, our bias is the later and for it to materialize, VIX needs to continue to hold above the daily trend level <VIX_DT1> and S&P need to hold below hourly and 4-hourly trend level <SP_HT1> and <SP_4HT1> respectively. Another way to resolve this conflict is to watch how market trades during each of the hourly cycles that peak around <SP_Day_Hour1>, bottom around <SP_Day_Hour2>, then uptrend till <SP_Day_Hour3> and decline till <SP_Day_Hour4>.
EURUSD is on daily buy signal from last Thursday. Hourly and 4-Hourly trend support is at <EURO_HT1> and <EURO_4HT1> that needs to be held for uptrend to materialize. Daily and Weekly resistance is at <EURO_DT1>, <EURO_WT1> that needs to be cleared for a follow through.
DXY Futures is on daily sell signal from last Thursday. Hourly and 4-Hourly trend resistance is at <DXY_HT1> and <DXY_4HT1>. Daily and Weekly support is at <DXY_DT1>, <DXY_WT1> that needs to be broken for downtrend to materialize.