Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Daily Update

The anticipated phase1 decline from the all time highs in S&P around first week of May timely finished on June 3rd. Now, it remains to be seen how much of upside we get in this phase2 uptrend that is expected to last until <SP_W2> which would further be followed by another phase3 decline that is expected by <SP_W3>. All of this information and dates were made available to all our subscribers way back in April and noted publicly with delay in prior weekly posts.

VIX closed below daily trend level and the longer it trades below trend the higher S&P goes. S&P daily trend level moves to <SP_DT1> and would offer initial resistance when hourly cycles top again. Hourly and 4-Hourly trend level is at <SP_HT>, <SP_4HT> to provide support.

At the lows today, US Dollar gave a daily buy signal. For it to materialize and give some uptrend, Dollar index futures have to get past 4-Hourly and daily trend level at <DXY_4HT> and <DXY_DT>. This level should provide some significant resistance and for Dollar to start downtrending, this resistance needs to hold. Hourly trend level is at <DXY_HT>.

Similarly, EURUSD hourly and 4-hourly trend level is at <EURO_HT> and <EURO_4HT>. Daily trend level is at <EURO_DT1>. EURUSD must hold this level to prevent going into downtrend.

May PMI manufacturing index dropped again at 50.5 to a 10-year low. Similarly, ISM Mfg Index dropped to 52.1. Construction spending dropped by -1.2% yr/yr. Total vehicle sales jumped to 17.3M annualized rate - a positive news. April's factory orders dropped by -0.8%. ADP employment report showed a job growth by only 27K. May PMI services index dropped like a rock to 50.9. On the contrary, May's ISM non-mfg index jumped to 56.9 - something positive. ECRI's weekly leading index (WLI) has dropped from a high of 148.6 on April 12th to 145.3 on May 24th.