S&P held it pretty well last week and still gained marginally for the week. VIX dropped by 1 full point. Nothing major to capture in weekly outlook - medium term situation continues to follow what has been noted in previous weekly and daily updates. Here comes one of the most important week when US FED makes a key monetary policy decision and its announcement on June 19th. Bulls are looking for a rate cut from the dovish FED. Bears want FED to delay rate cut and continue QT. From trading and investing stand-point, market has its own cycle regardless what the FED says.
Decent retracement by Dollar from oversold levels last week with buy signal in place. It remains to be seen how far this uptrend continues. EURUSD which is still on sell signal has to hold here and not trade much below daily trend level of <EURUSD_DT> to avoid going back in downtrend again.
Since the peak in April at 148.6, US weekly leading index from ECRI continued to drop till end of May at 144.0 and marginally recovered to 144.4 by first week of June. The Conference Board US monthly leading economic index increased 0.2 percent in April to 112.1, following a 0.3 percent increase in March, and a 0.2 percent increase in February. May retail sales jumped by 0.5% with strong upward revision for April. Industrial production moved up by 0.4% in May with capacity utilization at 78.1%. Business inventories rose 0.5 percent in April. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.39 from 1.38 in March. Consumer sentiment index fell to 97.9 from 100. Jobless claims moved slightly higher to 222K. Bot PPI, CPI in May increased by 0.1%, 1.8% m/m and y/y.