Saturday, August 17, 2019

US Bonds Cycle

News/media/economists/markets seem to be worried by the action in bonds now with yields in many of the developed markets (ex US) being negative. Our subscribers have been long bonds (2Y/5Y/10Y/30Y) ever since Sept' 2018 as our long duration monthly and weekly cycles in bonds anticipated the current outcome way back then. The below blog post link showing the monthly cycle was publicly noted back on June 2nd when US Treasury Note 10-yr yields were trading at around 2.2%, right now around 1.56%. Yield on 30yr US Treasury Bonds made a record low below 2% for the first time in recent history. The below figure shows what the weekly cycles have been forecasting for quite some time.

https://mktcycles.blogspot.com/2019/06/bond-rally.html

Weekly Cycle - 10 year note yield - 08/16/2019