Thursday, May 2, 2019

Daily Update

S&P traded as low as 2900 testing the daily trend level at <SP_DT1> and reversed higher with technical divergence condition in hourly charts - futures finally closed at 2919. Right now, hourly and 4-hourly trend resistance level is at <SP_HT1> and <SP_4HT1> respectively on S&P futures. Only a decisive move above these levels will lead to some uptrend.

VIX traded as high as 15.92 but closed lower at 14.42 (still above its daily trend level <VDT1>). Both S&P and VIX closed in red - such setups usually make S&P close in green the very next day but not always 100%.

The peak in this short-term hourly cycle came way too early timing wise primarily due to impact from longer-term cycles. Both options are possible now:

a) Price makes a quick immediate up impluse move close to short-term hourly cycle peak encountering resistance around <SP_4HT1> and then downtrend into cycle low.

b) Possibly, impact from short-term down cycle is done with divergence in technical indicators on hourly charts and price continues to move higher clearing <SP_HT1> followed by <SP_4HT1>.

DXY futures are still on daily sell signal but they have managed to clear the key hourly resistance levels though not decisively. Right now, hourly and 4-hourly trend levels are <DXY_HT1>, <DXY_4HT1> respectively.

EURUSD is still on daily buy signal but it has lost key hourly resistance levels though not decisively. Right now, hourly and 4-hourly trend levels are <EUR_HT1>, <EUR_4HT1> respectively.

April motor vehicle sales came at a lower 16.4M annual rate (March was 17.5M), jobless claims were unchanged at 230K. March factory orders rose by 1.9% m/m with 1.4% jump in orders of core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft).