Medium term up trending weekly and daily cycles continue to propel S&P higher making a new bull market high at 2954 and finally cleared the 2943 resistance in a volatile week. Last week S&P marginally gained +5.76 points and VIX marginally gained +0.14. Over head resistance is now at 3027.
Our bias should be to continue hold long positions until the medium term cycle peak date of <W1> (which is not very further out) as long as there is no close below daily trend level of <DT1>. Positive outlook is supported by another marginal increase in net short VIX futures held by large traders as of 2019-04-30 in CFTC’s COT report – however positioning from both commercials and non-commercials is at the very extreme end and open interest weakened a bit signaling a potential change in trend to possibly start in the interim should this continue further next week and VIX starts to trade above its daily and weekly trend resistance of <VDT1> and <WDT1> respectively. Outlook from short term hourly cycles is a potential weakness early in the week followed by uptrend till the end of the week.
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| VIX COT - 04/30/2019 |
US Dollar had a negative last week with sell signal in place since 04/25/2019 after testing the resistance level around 98.128. Similarly, EURUSD had a positive last week with buy signal in place since 04/25/2019 after testing the support level around 1.1114 and reversed higher. Commitment of traders (COT) report as of 04/30/2019 showed another marginal increase in net long DXY and net short EURO futures contracts held by large non-commercial traders along with increase in net open interest in both of these contacts. Outlook for coming week is still consolidation.
- EURUSD still continues on daily buy signal unless price remains below <EUR_HT1> and continue to downtrend. Daily and Weekly trend resistance is at <EUR_DT1> and <EUR_WT1> respectively.
- DXY Futures are on daily sell signal unless price holds above hourly trend level of <DXY_HT1> and continue to uptrend. Support is at daily trend level <DXY_DT1>.
